Andre Bouvet-Morrissette, Andrew Carroll, Andrew Panzarella, Brandon Magee, Carson McMillan, Cole Martin, Colton Beck, Corbin Baldwin, Dallas Stars, Damian Cross, Daniel Johnston, ECHL, ECHL West Division, ECHL Western Conference, Emil Molin, Eric Rodgers, Estimated Time-On-Ice, eTOI, Idaho Steelheads, Jake Rutt, Jefferson Dahl, Joe Basaraba, Rob Linsmayer, Shawn Boutin, Taylor Peters, Texas Stars, TOI, Tommy Fallen, Zack Kamrass
An incredibly frustrating part of minor league hockey in North America is that there are very few if any advanced statistics available, however Eric Rodgers has been working to fill some of the much-needed gaps. The past couple of seasons Eric has been producing Estimated Time-On-Ice (eTOI) data for some AHL and now ECHL teams. Eric’s AHL OKC Barons eTOI figures were published at Tend the Farm the past couple of seasons, and his data was looked at closely by some of the Edmonton Oilers media (see for example Lowetide’s July 2015 “OKC Forensic Files” when discussing the development of their NHL prospects in the AHL and their eTOI.)
Eric describes his method along with a disclaimer: “Using a formula involving goal events, I’ve been able to get an estimation on TOI for players. The key word I stress however, is estimated. Early in the season, the small sample size can greatly over-estimate or under-estimate a players eTOI. The main thing I like to use these numbers for however, is that you can get a good idea of what players are being used where and how often.”
Earlier I worked with Eric on some individual player eTOI data and the information was incredibly useful in gaining a far better understanding of a player’s utilization. Eric recently published his Tulsa Oilers eTOI and we decided that we would take a closer look at more Western Conference teams throughout the season, and today we begin our project with the Idaho Steelheads after 11 games. Even though this is still a relatively small sample size of games, the data begins to give us a glimpse into how the players are being utilized and who is leading the group with ice-time, and the information will improve as more game stats are added into the mix.
The Idaho Steelheads
The Idaho Steelheads play in the West Division of the ECHL’s Western Conference and are affiliated with the Dallas Stars and their AHL affiliate the Texas Stars. Currently the Steelheads are ranked 8th in the Western Conference: after 11 games they are 4-5-2-0 with 10 points. This week the Steelheads head off on a long road trip for the remainder of November, first to Orlando (Nov. 12), then Florida (Nov. 13 & 14), Colorado (Nov. 18, 20, 21) and finally Rapid City (Nov. 25, 27, 28).
The Dallas Stars have two NHL Entry Level contracted players on Idaho’s roster — Taylor Peters and Emil Molin. Molin, with 5 goals and 4 assists in 11 games with the Steelheads, was just reassigned to the Texas Stars AHL club on Nov. 9th which marks his first call-up to the AHL. Brandon Magee was signed to an AHL contract with the Texas Stars. Beck, Magee, Molin, Peters, Kamrass, Martin, Panzarella and Rutt all attended Texas Stars training camp in late September-early October.
Colton Beck, Shawn Boutin, Jefferson Dahl, Zack Kamrass, Rob Linsmayer and Jake Rutt return to the Steelheads from last season, along with Andrew Carroll who was a member of the 2012-13 Steelheads’ roster. This season the Steelheads have a new Head Coach Neil Graham who was promoted from Assistant Coach when Brad Ralph become the coach of the Kelowna Rockets earlier this summer. Gord Baldwin is the new assistant coach, a former Steelheads’ defenseman from 2012-13.
We have attempted to list the player’s specific current positions however it should be noted that some are being moved around to different positions. For instance Molin is officially listed by the Stars as a Center however he is currently playing wing in Idaho. Please keep in mind that a smaller sample size can greatly over-estimate or under-estimate a player’s eTOI.
Estimated Time-on-Ice for Forwards:
Estimated Time-on-Ice for Defensemen:
Notes on the numbers: If you have watched the Steelheads games you know that a few of these numbers are off due to the small sample size and how the data is calculated using goal events. For instance, Baldwin’s TOI is very likely much higher, probably at the top of the defensemen list, however due to the small sample size his eTOI is lower. As more game stats are added we will see more accurate eTOI.
From the ECHL gamesheet starting lineups show a few variations of lines and pairings:
Molin – Basaraba – Linsmayer
Molin – Dahl – Linsmayer
Beck – Dahl – Bouvet-Morrissette
Rutt – Boutin
Baldwin – Panzarella
Baldwin – Kamrass
Martin – Kamrass
Kamrass – Johnston
If you have any corrections on player positions please let us know. Many thanks to Eric Rodgers for his data, and everyone else who replied to my questions and provided information.
Follow Eric Rodgers at @ or @ for Tulsa Oilers news only. For more Idaho Steelheads news follow John Mulhern at @ on twitter and read his ECHL Steelheads articles on 100 Degree Hockey blog covering the AHL Texas Stars, and also the Steelheads Director of Media/Community Relations and Broadcaster Brian McCormack at @. For Texas Stars news follow Sean Shapiro at @.
Continue to check back for more updates on eTOI for the Idaho Steelheads and eTOI for other Western Conference teams. — @